Recent share performance and business snapshot
Hamilton Lane (HLNE) has drawn investor attention after a period of weaker share performance, with the stock showing negative returns over the past month, past 3 months, year to date and over the past year.
At a last close of US$92.28, Hamilton Lane has a market value of about US$5.19b, generates revenue of US$763.4m and net income of US$233.5m, and holds a reported value score of 3.
See our latest analysis for Hamilton Lane.
Hamilton Lane's recent 7 day share price return of 3.23% decline and 30 day share price return of 4.72% decline sit against a 1 year total shareholder return of 33.37% decline and a 3 year total shareholder return of 34.36% gain. This suggests long term holders have fared better than those focused on recent momentum.
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With recent share price declines alongside an intrinsic value estimate that sits at a reported discount, investors now face a key question: is Hamilton Lane a mispriced opportunity, or is the market already baking in its future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 40.5% Undervalued
Hamilton Lane's most followed valuation narrative puts fair value at US$155.14 per share, well above the last close of US$92.28, which is why it frames the stock as materially undervalued.
Rapid net inflows, especially in the Evergreen platform (65% YoY AUM growth and record $1.2 billion quarterly net inflows), alongside growing global partnerships and new client wins, indicate a continually expanding addressable market and sustained topline revenue growth.
Curious what kind of revenue pace, margin profile, and future P/E multiple are reflected in that US$155.14 figure? The full narrative sets out the growth path and profitability assumptions that would need to align for this valuation gap to close.
Result: Fair Value of $155.14 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, this upbeat narrative can be knocked off course if regulatory costs climb faster than expected, or if fee compression and tougher competition hit profitability harder than modeled.
Find out about the key risks to this Hamilton Lane narrative.
Next Steps
With sentiment pulling in both positive and cautious directions, it may be useful to review the numbers yourself and consider how they align with your expectations. To see what investors are finding encouraging right now, review the 3 key rewards
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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