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To own Ares Management, you largely need to believe in its ability to grow and defend fee based earnings from alternative assets despite pressure on margins and fund flows. The Asia leadership refresh fits that story but does not materially change the near term swing factors, which still center on stabilizing redemption sensitive wealth products and protecting fees in a competitive private credit market.
Among recent announcements, Ares’ plan to raise about US$20 billion for its next US direct lending fund feels most relevant. Together with the build out of Asia Credit leadership under E.G. Morse, it speaks to how dependent Ares’ near term narrative is on sustaining fundraising and deployment momentum in private credit at a time when peers are also aggressively competing for capital.
Yet behind this expansion, investors should be aware that rising costs and fee pressure could start to bite just as...
Read the full narrative on Ares Management (it's free!)
Ares Management's narrative projects $7.1 billion revenue and $2.2 billion earnings by 2028.
Uncover how Ares Management's forecasts yield a $170.59 fair value, a 51% upside to its current price.
Some of the lowest analysts were already warning that higher G&A and tougher fundraising could cap revenue growth near 5.5 percent and still required earnings to climb toward about US$1.4 billion, which gives you a sense of how different your view might be from theirs once you factor in the Asia leadership changes.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Ares Management - why the stock might be worth 24% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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