Why ARMOUR Residential REIT’s Q1 2026 Results Matter For Investors
ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) drew investor focus after reporting a Q1 2026 net loss driven by mark to market pressure, while non GAAP distributable earnings fully covered its monthly dividend.
See our latest analysis for ARMOUR Residential REIT.
ARR’s recent earnings release, dividend affirmation and capital raises have arrived alongside a 12.02% 1 month share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 30.98% suggests longer term performance has been stronger than the shorter term share price trend.
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With distributable earnings covering the dividend, a Q1 GAAP loss, a 31% 1 year total return, and the share price sitting only slightly below the latest analyst target, is ARR undervalued or is the market already pricing in its future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 3.6% Overvalued
The most followed narrative puts ARMOUR Residential REIT’s fair value at $17, slightly below the last close of $17.62. This frames the current debate around upside from here.
The analysts have a consensus price target of $17.0 for ARMOUR Residential REIT based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. In order for you to agree with the analysts, you would need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $825.8 million, earnings will come to $1.4 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 2.2x, assuming you use a discount rate of 10.7%.
Want to see what sits behind that gap between today’s price and the $17 fair value? The narrative leans heavily on ambitious earnings expansion, margin shifts and a very different future P/E. The full breakdown shows how those moving parts fit together, line by line.
Result: Fair Value of $17 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, that story can shift quickly if higher rates squeeze funding costs or if refinancing speeds up again, pressuring spreads, book value, and dividend durability.
Find out about the key risks to this ARMOUR Residential REIT narrative.
Another View On ARR’s Valuation
The analyst narrative points to ARR trading slightly above a $17 fair value, but the current P/E of 9.6x tells a different story. It sits below both peers at 11.6x and the US Mortgage REITs industry at 10x, and under a fair ratio of 15.5x. This raises the question of whether the market will eventually move closer to that level. Is this a value cushion or a sign investors are still pricing in risk?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With mixed signals across earnings, dividends and valuation, how confident do you feel in the current story around ARR, and how quickly should you act to firm up that view? Start by weighing the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs
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If ARR has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused sets of stocks that match your goals.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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