Earnings snapshot: what changed in Q1 2026
Centuri Holdings (CTRI) just posted first quarter 2026 results, reporting revenue of US$723.2 million compared with US$550.1 million a year earlier, a narrower net loss, and earnings that came in ahead of consensus expectations.
See our latest analysis for Centuri Holdings.
Centuri's Q1 2026 earnings beat, record US$6.5b backlog and reiterated guidance appear to have reset expectations. A recent 1 day share price return of negative 19.62% contrasts with a year to date share price return of 30.13% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 60.69%. This suggests momentum has cooled in the short term after a strong run.
If this kind of volatility has you thinking about where else growth and infrastructure spending could matter, it is a good time to scan 36 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
With Q1 results ahead of expectations, a record US$6.5b backlog, and a recent pullback after a strong 1-year run, is Centuri still undervalued or is the stock already pricing in years of future growth?
Most Popular Narrative: 38.1% Overvalued
Centuri's most followed narrative pegs fair value at $24.33, which sits well below the latest close at $33.60, so the story leans heavily on future execution.
Record backlog of approximately $5.9 billion and a robust $13 billion opportunity pipeline, including over 600 strategic bids, supports sustained revenue growth by converting awarded work into a higher, more stable top line.
Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.
Want to see what justifies paying above that fair value line? The narrative leans on steady expansion in revenue, rising margins and a richer earnings base. Curious how those pieces fit together into a long term cash flow story and a premium earnings multiple case?
Result: Fair Value of $24.33 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there are still a couple of swing factors, including execution on the US$5.9b backlog and any shift in margins from higher value data center and industrial work.
Find out about the key risks to this Centuri Holdings narrative.
Another view on valuation
Analysts see Centuri as 38.1% overvalued at $33.60 versus their $24.33 target, yet Simply Wall St's DCF model points the other way, with a future cash flow value of $40.34. One model suggests caution, the other suggests upside. Which set of assumptions do you consider more realistic?
Our DCF model is only as useful as the inputs you think are realistic, so it is worth checking how sensitive that $40.34 figure is to growth, margins and discount rate assumptions. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Centuri Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.
Next Steps
Uncertain whether this mix of risks and rewards points to opportunity or caution for you specifically? Quickly review the underlying data, compare the narratives, and decide where you stand with 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs
Looking for more investment ideas?
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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