Shareholders of Nissha Co., Ltd. (TSE:7915) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 19% to JP¥1,555 following its latest quarterly results. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of JP¥21.13 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of JP¥46b came in 6.7% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Nissha's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be JP¥196.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 165% to JP¥74.70. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥194.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥80.34 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for Nissha
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at JP¥1,444, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Nissha analyst has a price target of JP¥1,750 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,200. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Nissha's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 2.4% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.8% per year. So it's clear that despite the acceleration in growth, Nissha is expected to grow meaningfully slower than the industry average.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Nissha's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Nissha going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Nissha is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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